Fourteen percent represents the proportion of all 3,065 seniors in the pilot high schools who both completed the Exit survey (59%) and indicated that they filed their FIRST application during their school event. Thus, 14% will serve as the basis for social capital and economic projections. This benchmark was selected for two reasons (1) students who applied for the FIRST time during the AzCAC event likely applied due to the peer, school staff, and cohort support/encouragement provided through the campaign and (2) 14% is a very conservative benchmark for projections because 41% or 1,254 of the students in the participating high schools did not complete the Exit Survey and therefore 0 were counted as FIRST time filers.
The Commission projects the potential growth of AzCAC sites to 1/5 of all high schools in November 2014 representing 12,400 Seniors. If this projection is attained an estimated 1,736 Arizona graduates will for the FIRST time apply to a postsecondary institution during the AzCAC event at their school. Calculations and assumptions that underlying the AzCAC estimates/projections can be found in the Projection of Potential Impact of AzCAC document.
If only ½ of this estimated number of FIRST filers or 868 students would actually enter a postsecondary institution it would have a dramatic effect on the economy of the state in two ways. First, an estimated additional $3M in Pell Grant funds would come to the state each year these students attend an Arizona institution. All campaign high schools were Title I, so we make the assumption that a very large percentage may receive the Pell Grant. This number would increase the same amount each following year as a cohort graduates and would stabilize around the $10M mark after 4 years.
Second, if only ½ of the number enrolling persists to a baccalaureate degree the 2014-2015 class of graduates alone would bring an additional $2.1M in taxes each year to the state coffers over what they would earn as high school graduates. Furthermore, they would contribute an additional $7M to the Arizona economy for each year of their working life. This boost to the economy and additional taxes would be compounded by each following cohort of graduates comprised of ¼ of the 14% of FIRST filers. At the point of full statewide implementation of the AzCAC strategy the yield would be an additional $10.8M in taxes and $34.9M infused into the economy annually as each cohort is added. Thus by 2023 these graduates would contribute an additional $100.7M to the Arizona economy.
Finally, another source of data is provided for evaluation of the Arizona College Application Campaign. A Summary and Lessons Learned document describes what was observed, problems needing solutions, and advice from site coordinators about the campaign. The varied sources of data will direct the 3rd year of the Campaign.